If you’re in sales ops, revenue leadership, or just the poor soul tasked with explaining why your forecast was off (again), this guide’s for you. Forecast accuracy isn’t just a “nice to have”—it’s the difference between hitting targets and scrambling for last-minute deals. And while plenty of tools promise to make forecasting “data-driven,” most just give you more dashboards to ignore. Let’s cut through the noise and get real about using Clari to actually track and improve your forecast accuracy over time.
Why Bother Tracking Forecast Accuracy?
Before you dive into Clari’s analytics, let’s be clear: tracking forecast accuracy isn’t about looking smart in meetings. It’s about spotting patterns—good and bad—so you can stop making the same mistakes every quarter.
A few things you learn when you actually measure forecast accuracy:
- Are reps consistently sandbagging or overcommitting?
- Does your forecast improve as the quarter goes on?
- Is your process getting better, or are you just guessing with more expensive software?
If you’re not tracking accuracy over time, you’re just hoping things get better. Spoiler: they won’t.
Step 1: Get Your Data House in Order
Let’s be honest: Clari can’t work magic with bad data. Before you start pulling reports, make sure you’re working with clean, consistent numbers.
Checklist: - Are all deals consistently updated in your CRM? - Is everyone using the same definitions for forecast categories (commit, best case, etc.)? - Have you closed out old or zombie opportunities?
Pro tip: Don’t trust last-minute CRM updates. If your team only updates deals right before the forecast call, you’re just measuring who’s best at procrastinating.
Step 2: Know What You’re Measuring (and Why)
“Forecast accuracy” can mean different things depending on your company or even your boss’s mood. Here’s what matters:
- Point-in-time accuracy: How close was your forecast on a specific date to what actually closed?
- Trend over time: Is your forecast getting more accurate as the quarter goes on?
- Granularity: Are you looking at the whole company, a region, or down to the rep?
Pick your battles. Trying to track every possible metric just creates noise.
Step 3: Pull Basic Forecast vs. Actuals Reports in Clari
Clari’s bread and butter is its ability to track forecast changes by week (or even day). Start simple:
- Open Clari Analytics.
- Navigate to your Forecast Accuracy dashboard (if you don’t see one, you can build a custom report).
- Set the time frame (current and previous quarters are a good start).
- Compare each week’s forecast snapshot to the actual closed revenue.
What you’re looking for: - How far off were you at the start of the quarter vs. the end? - Are there specific weeks where the forecast jumps or drops?
Don’t get distracted: Ignore fancy charts showing “AI confidence” unless you actually plan to act on them. Stick to raw forecast vs. actual numbers for now.
Step 4: Analyze Accuracy Trends Over Time
This is where Clari is actually helpful (if you’re willing to dig in). You want to see if your forecast accuracy is getting better as the quarter progresses—if not, you’ve got a process issue.
How to do it:
- Export weekly forecast snapshots and actuals for the last few quarters.
- Plot them in a line chart (Clari can do this, but Excel or Google Sheets works too).
- Calculate accuracy as:
Accuracy % = (Forecast – Actual) / Actual * 100
Look for: - Consistent gaps: Always too high or too low? That’s a pattern. - Wild swings: Big changes week-to-week mean your process (or pipeline) is shaky. - Momentum: Is your team getting closer to the actual number as the close date nears?
Honest take: If your forecast is only accurate in the last week of the quarter, you’re not forecasting—you’re just reporting.
Step 5: Drill Down by Team, Segment, or Rep
It’s tempting to look at company-wide numbers and call it a day. But the real value comes from breaking it down.
In Clari: - Filter forecast accuracy by manager, team, or segment. - Look for outliers—reps or regions who are way off, up or down. - Compare “commit” forecasts to what actually closed. Are people padding their numbers, or playing it safe?
What to ignore: Don’t get lost blaming individual reps for every miss. Sometimes the process—or your definitions—are the real culprit.
Step 6: Use Clari’s Change Tracking to Spot Last-Minute Surprises
One underrated feature: Clari shows you exactly when and how deals move between categories. Use this to answer, “Did we lose because of late-stage slippage, or were we just delusional all quarter?”
Action steps: - Review “pushed” deals—opportunities that keep moving to the next quarter. - Check how often deals downgrade (from commit to best case, or best case to omitted). - Set up alerts for big changes in the final weeks (but don’t drown in notifications).
Caution: Chasing every deal that moves is a waste of time. Focus on patterns, not individual drama.
Step 7: Repeat, Review, and Actually Act
The best analytics in the world won’t fix your forecast if you ignore what you find. Use your Clari data to:
- Update forecast guidance (what counts as commit, etc.).
- Coach managers or reps who are consistently off.
- Adjust pipeline targets if your accuracy is trending the wrong way.
Remember: No tool—including Clari—will fix a broken culture of sandbagging or wishful thinking.
A Few Things That Don’t Work (And What Does)
Don’t bother with: - Overly complex dashboards nobody reads. - Chasing “AI-powered” insights you can’t explain to your boss. - Tracking too many metrics. Pick a few that matter.
What actually works: - Consistent deal hygiene (clean data = better forecasts). - Regular, honest review of forecast vs. actuals. - Using trends to spot process issues—not just blaming people for misses.
Wrap-Up: Keep It Simple, Iterate, and Don’t Drink the Kool-Aid
Clari’s analytics are powerful, but only if you use them to drive action—not just to cover your butt in meetings. Start small, track forecast accuracy over time, and look for patterns you can actually fix. Don’t get lost in the hype or try to measure everything at once. The best teams keep it simple and improve a little each quarter.
Now, go make your forecast something you can actually stand behind. And remember: if everyone’s sandbagging, no amount of analytics will save you.